Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW)
I do not deny that there has been 0.9 C increase in average global temperatures since the middle of the 19th century.
I do not deny that carbon dioxide is a "greenhouse gas" that must contribute in some measure to the warming since the 1950s.
I do not believe that the amount of warming caused by human industry is going to be catastrophic.
I know that the scope of papal infallibility does not extend to deciding matters of fact that have no bearing on the dogmas of the Church.
The battle over what is and is not science, and about what does or does not count as scientific evidence, is a philosophical battle. These are questions of metaphysics and epistemology, not logic, mathematics, physics, chemistry, or biology.
Chicken Little Science
This is Steve Goreham's summary of the case for Global Anxiety.
- A. The greenhouse effect is real.
- B. Global temperatures have risen in the last century.
- C. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen.
- D. Computer models project irreversible damage to the whole world: "If these demands are not met a disaster beyond all imagination will occur!" (Phantom of the Opera).
A more complete view:
- A. Solar System
- - Solar Wind
- - Solar Radiation
- B. Atmosphere
- - Greenhouse gases are 1% to 2% of the atmosphere.
- - The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor.
- - The oceans hold 50 times as much carbon dioxide in solution as is in the atmosphere. [Warmer temperatures cause the release of carbon dioxide from the oceans. The rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide lags behind natural variations in temperature by 600 years.]
- - Nature puts twenty times as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as all of earth's industries. So the human contribution to the greenhouse effect is 1% to 2% of the natural factors (water vapor and clouds, ocean uptake and release, volcanoes, plants, and animals).
- C. Climate models are wrong. The measured temperatures are far from the projected temperatures. The effects of increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are not linear. "The flea wagging the dog theory." The models assume that the carbon dioxide cycle controls the water vapor cycle; but the evidence is to the contrary.
- A. Solar System